Back in 2020, in response to the global call by the World Health Organization to eliminate cervical cancer, Canada set an ambitious goal to achieve 90 per cent HPV vaccination coverage among 17-year-olds by 2025. That deadline has now passed, but the most recent national average immunization rate, reported at the end of 2024, stands at only 70.9 per cent.
It is essential for policymakers and regulators to identify areas that need improvement and implement corrective action not only to complete a desirable national objective, but also to protect Canadians from a serious disease that is largely preventable with vaccines that have been proven to be both safe and effective.
Raising the coverage to 80 per cent is a viable short-term goal with transformational effect. A meta-analysis found that reaching 80 per cent vaccine coverage among both males and females could effectively eliminate transmission of HPV-16, HPV-18, HPV-6 and HPV-11. These variants are responsible for approximately 70 per cent of cervical cancers and 90 per cent of anogenital warts in Canada.
Because health-care delivery and immunization programs are provincially administered, national averages can obscure substantial regional variation. Differences in demographics, resources and program implementation across provinces make it valuable to examine HPV vaccine coverage at the provincial level, even though provinces have different reporting standards.
No province has yet reached the 90 per cent target set by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer and the National Advisory Committee on Immunization, although a few are approaching it. Based on the most recent 2024 data, Quebec reports approximately 81 per cent coverage among students vaccinated in Grade 4. Nova Scotia has a vaccine coverage rate of 79 per cent of 17-year-olds fully vaccinated.
According to the most recent data from 2023 and 2024, Prince Edward Island reports a 74.6 per cent vaccination rate among Grade 6 students. Alberta has fully vaccinated 74 per cent of 17-year-olds, while Manitoba reports 73 per cent coverage in the same age group. British Columbia’s coverage is slightly lower, at 72.8 per cent among Grade 9 students.
Ontario, however, significantly trails the other provinces, likely contributing to the lower national average. Data from the 2024-2025 school year indicate that only 57 per cent of 17-year-olds in Ontario are fully vaccinated.
Vaccine coverage data from Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan are not included in this analysis, as the most recent publicly available data for these provinces date back to 2019 and 2018, respectively. Similarly, coverage data from the three territories are unavailable, due to the absence of publicly reported figures.
With a clearer picture of current HPV vaccine coverage, all provinces should prioritize efforts and resources to achieve the 90 per cent target. For provinces currently around 70 per cent, investments should nonetheless be made to reach at least 80 per cent, providing a stronger level of population protection.
Provinces should also coordinate around a uniform reporting standard, even if additional age groups are reported according to local schedules. Consistent benchmarks would enable meaningful comparisons and strengthen accountability.
Where provinces report coverage at a regional level, efforts should be directed toward closing existing inequities. Among provinces with regional data, Quebec shows relatively little variation, with Nunavik as the primary outlier. Coverage is less consistent in British Columbia, where regions such as the Northeast (48.3 per cent) and Kootenay Boundary (56.9 per cent) fall well below the provincial average. Ontario displays similar disparities: large urban centres including Hamilton (39.6 per cent), Toronto (46.7 per cent), and Ottawa (45 per cent) lag the provincial average. Alberta also demonstrates striking gaps, with some rural reporting coverage far below the provincial average. These disparities underscore the need for provincial public health agencies to allocate resources strategically to reduce inequities.
It is critical for federal and provincial policymakers to act decisively to achieve public health goals, particularly in light of a concerning decline in HPV vaccine coverage. Coverage has alarmingly dropped from 74.3 per cent in 2020, largely due to disruptions in school-based vaccination programs caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This decline reflects an international trend. But the persistence of lower coverage today suggests that passive recovery is unlikely.
Urgent action is required to halt this downward trend before it undermines two decades of progress since HPV vaccination became available in 2006.
The stakes are high: Canada’s public health system recently lost measles elimination status, a reminder that even well-established prevention programs can be vulnerable when efforts falter.
